Unconsciously, the third quarter has been more than half of the year. Looking back on the performance of industrial naphthalene in the first half of the year, it seems unsatisfactory. However, in August, naphthalene is still in a bad situation, highlighting the encirclement and continuing the upward mode, breaking through the 4000 yuan / ton level. Compared with the rising prices of naphthalene in 18 years, it is not difficult to find that the industrial naphthalene has been falling all the way this year, from a high of 5000 yuan at the beginning of the year to a low of 3500 yuan / ton, and the difference between high and low prices is 1500 yuan / ton. After falling to the bottom at the end of May, the naphthalene Market has been in a slow recovery stage. Up to now, the performance of industrial naphthalene in all coal tar deep-processing products is still commendable, but whether it can regain the glory of 18 years remains to be seen. Zhongyu information analysis is as follows.
              

从成本面来看，近期煤焦油利空面一再发酵，价格一跌再跌。纵使环保趋严下，供应低位依旧存支撑，但需求弱势局面难改，下游为保证自身利益，对原料价格步步打压。目前下游深加工产品中，除工业萘、洗油外，其余产品皆弱势，尤其是煤沥青和蒽油，终端需求萎缩下，其运行难有起色，价格向低位靠拢。另外，炭黑方面，产能过剩问题依旧凸出，企业间竞争激烈，且中美贸易战下，终端轮胎出口受限，对原料持打压情绪。刚需不振情况下，短线煤焦油价格低位震荡运行，成本支撑削弱。

From the cost point of view, the recent coal tar oil negative noodles fermentation again and again, the price fell again and again. Even though the environmental protection is getting stricter and the supply level is still low, the weak demand situation is hard to change. In order to ensure their own interests, the downstream companies have gradually suppressed the prices of raw materials. At present, in the downstream deep-processing products, except for industrial naphthalene and wash oil, the other products are weak, especially coal tar pitch and anthracene oil. Under the shrinking terminal demand, their operation is difficult to improve, and the prices are close to the low level. In addition, in terms of carbon black, the problem of overcapacity is still prominent, the competition among enterprises is fierce, and under the Sino US trade war, the export of terminal tires is limited, and the raw materials are depressed. Under the condition of weak demand, the short-term coal tar price fluctuates at a low level, and the cost support is weakened.

下游需求方面来看，近期萘法苯酐在高成本与低需求的双双夹击下，苦不堪言。从下图可以明显看出，以山东为例，目前萘法苯酐厂家利润面已进入亏损，亏损幅度在170元/吨附近，厂家对高价位原料已无力接受，议价情绪开始升温，相关邻法高位走货时有让利，对萘法更是不利。下游增塑剂市场亦是面临成本的压力，但涨势乏力，对苯酐价格开始抵触。层层递推下，萘刚需面难有利好支撑。

In terms of downstream demand, naphthalene phthalic anhydride is suffering from both high cost and low demand. It can be clearly seen from the figure below that, taking Shandong as an example, at present, the profit margin of naphthalene phthalic anhydride manufacturers has entered into a loss, and the loss range is around 170 yuan / ton. The manufacturers are unable to accept the high-price raw materials, and the bargaining sentiment begins to heat up. When the related neighboring methods sell goods at a high level, it is even more unfavorable to the naphthalene process. The downstream plasticizer market is also facing the pressure of cost, but the rise is weak, and the price of phthalic anhydride begins to conflict. Layer by layer recursive, naphthalene hard to support.

在成本与需求双双利空的形势下，工业萘之所以能维持涨势，供应面功不可没。山西“二青会”的举办，当地环保进一步趋严，再加上煤沥青、蒽油等占据深加工企业主导的产品行情弱势，开工积极性不高，山东、河北以及河南等等地区亦然。场内集中降负荷及检修频频发生。萘现货供应紧缺，且短期内开工难有提升，供应面始终是支撑。

In the situation of negative cost and demand, the supply side plays an important role in maintaining the rising trend of industrial naphthalene. With the holding of the "second youth association" in Shanxi, the local environmental protection has become more stringent. In addition, coal tar pitch, anthracene oil and other products dominated by deep-processing enterprises are in a weak market, and the enthusiasm to start construction is not high, so is Shandong, Hebei and Henan. Centralized load reduction and maintenance occur frequently. Naphthalene spot supply is in short supply, and it is difficult to improve in the short term, so the supply side is always the support.

综上，精萘厂家认为，萘供应面紧张，支撑深加工企业挺价，但需求弱势，对萘发展始终是制约，预计短线工业萘市场高位风险加重，价格渐趋于平稳，不排除走跌的可能。长线来看，大的经济环境多不景气，相关产品价格皆不理想，萘处于产业链中一环，价格走跌亦不可避免，很难重回18年高位。

To sum up, naphthalene manufacturers believe that the supply of naphthalene is tight, which supports the price of deep-processing enterprises, but the weak demand has always restricted the development of naphthalene. It is expected that the high-level risk in the short-term industrial naphthalene Market will increase, and the price will gradually stabilize, so it is impossible to rule out the possibility of falling. In the long run, the economic environment is more depressed, and the prices of related products are not ideal. Naphthalene is in a link of the industrial chain, and the price decline is inevitable. It is difficult to return to the 18 year high.